i >. ,
OPEC set to slash exports
by William Drozdiak
The Washington Post
January 15, 2001
BRUSSELS - Nearly three years ago,
as Asia's economies began slipping
into crisis, OPEC oil ministers made
a grave miscalculation: In a bid to
maximize their income, they decided
to boost output. But with the so
called Asian contagion came a col
lapse in demand for oil, and prices
plummeted to less than $lO a barrel,
provoking tremors of political and
economic instability among oil ex
porting countries from Venezuela to
Saudi Arabia.
This time, the cartel's leaders say they
have learned their lesson. With the
American economy showing signs of
slouching toward recession ahead of
a crucial meeting of OPEC - the Or
ganization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries - in Vienna on Wednesday,
the ministers say they are determined
to head off any slump in demand by
slashing production in the hope of
keeping prices safely above present
levels of about $25 a barrel.
This weekend, Energy Secretary
Bill Richardson made a whirlwind
tour through the oil-rich nations of
the Persian Gulf region, hoping to
head off any precipitous moves by
OPEC. Richardson, who stopped in
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the
United Arab Emirates, said Monday
in a telephone interview that he
sought to convince oil ministers of
the need for restraint at the Vienna
meeting. By his own account of his
trip, however, the prospects for a suc
cessful outcome look dicey.
"We made some progress in urg
ing them to keep consumer views in
mind and make only modest cuts,"
Richardson said. "But my concern is
that some of these countries are get
ting too happy with oil at $3O a bar
rel. Oil at that price is not good for
the world economy. It can lead to in-
Not just
Los Angeles Times
January 16, 2001
The following editorial appeared
in Tuesday's Los Angeles "Times:
Until last October few airline pas
sengers worried about blood clots
forming during flights. Then a 28-
year-old Englishwoman stepped off
a plane at London's Heathrow Air
port after a 12,000-mile journey from
Australia and collapsed and died. An
autopsy attributed her death to a pul
monary embolism resulting from
deep vein thrombosis - in other
words, a blood clot that had lodged
in a lung. The likely cause of the clot
was the passenger's restricted move
ment in a cramped seating space dur
ing the long trip.
Since then what quickly came to
Oldest piece of Earth found
The Washington Post
January 15, 2001
Scientists have found what they
believe is the oldest piece of Earth
ever identified - a crystal dating
back about 4.4 billion years.
Moreover, chemical analysis of
the tiny rock, which contains the
mineral zircon, suggests that liquid
water might ha v e
existed on the
planet much
earlier than
previously
thought.
Two teams
of research
ers analyzed
the crystal,
uncovered
inside a
muc h
younger
rock found
in western Australia, and deter
mined it dated back 4.3 billion to
4.4 billion years, making it the old
est terrestrial material ever found.
Chemical analyses of the crystal,
which is about the diameter of two
human hairs, indicate it was formed
in the presence of liquid water,
which contrasts with the prevailing
Elation and a deeper slowdown that
will ultimately be just as harmful"
to the oil producers.
Many analysts are sounding simi
lar warnings. If OPEC production
cuts cause panic and drive oil prices
close to $4O a barrel or even higher,
they say, a new energy crisis could
trigger a deep global recession that,
in turn, would provoke a steep fall
in demand for oil that could ulti
mately drive prices back down be
low $lO a barrel. Such extreme mar
ket volatility for the world's most
crucial commodity would prove di
sastrous for producers and consum-
ers alike.
Richardson said he was encour
aged to hear that the kind of precipi
tous production cuts being proposed
by such price hawks as Iran and Ven
ezuela - as high as 2 million or 3 mil
lion barrels a day - will not be sup
ported by Saudi Arabia, the world's
biggest oil exporter and the most
powerful voice in the cartel.
Last week, Saudi Arabia's national
oil company, Aramco, told its cus
tomers to expect reduced deliveries
in February amounting to 500,000
barrels a day, about 5 percent of to
tal Saudi production. This figure
would be in line with Saudi Arabia's
anticipated share of a production cut
if the cartel as a whole agreed to trim
1.5 million barrels a day.
But Richardson said it is clear that
even Saudi Arabia and its gulf neigh
bors - which remain solicitous about
sustaining close ties with their U.S.
ally 10 years after American forces
helped drive Iraqi invaders out of
Kuwait - are fearful about the dam
age another oil glut could inflict on
their own economies.
"These countries are just obsessed
about what happened to them after
they decided to raise production at
the Jakarta conference in 1998,"
Richardson said. "But they have to
realize that the only way we achieve
economy-class syndrome
be called economy-class syndrome
has drawn a lot of attention. Last
week a hospital near Heathrow re
ported that at least 30 people had
died over the last three years after
debarking at the airport following
long flights. That's at just one hos
pital near one airport. Since symp
toms of a clot, which can include
swelling and cramping, vary and are
often mistaken for something else,
precise numbers are unavailable.
It's not a problem just for air pas
sengers. The syndrome is the fourth
most common cause of death in the
United States, according to Dr. Rob
ert Mcßane, a thrombosis expert at
the Mayo Clinic. It occurs as well in
people who sit at desks or in theater
seats too long and in patients irnmo
bilized during surgery. Mcßane and
view that at that time the nascent
Earth was a swirling ball of molten
metal and rock. That suggests that
conditions necessary for life to
emerge might have existed earlier
in the planet's history.
"Although it is unclear how gen
eral a picture a few tiny zircon
grains can provide, the results rep
resent a significant advance in re
constructing Earth's
Dark Ages,"
wrote Alex N.
Halliday of
the Swiss Fed
eral Institute
of Technology
in Zurich in a
commentary
accompanying
the report in the
Jan. 11 issue of
Nature
covery also
casts doubt on the theory that
Earth's moon formed when the
young planet was struck by a large
object, casting off a piece of debris
that became the moon. If that had
happened, the planet would have
been too hot for liquid water to have
been present.
\i\ioi?Lp & \\f '\7l l lol\\f
r-
stability in the global oil markets is
by having a cooperative dialogue be
tween producers and consumers. We
need to find a healthy range for all
concerned, because $lO a barrel is too
low and $3O a barrel is too high."
Richardson said he was received
with warmth and hospitality during
his tour. When he arrived in Kuwait
late Sunday, Saud Nasir Sabah, the
sheikdom's oil minister, delayed their
discussions so the two of them could
watch the NFL playoff games on tele
vision before pondering the fate of
the world's economy.
But while his charm offensive was
greeted cordially, Richardson's ap
peal for small or no cuts in oil pro
duction was rebuffed with lectures
about the need to consider mutual in
terests. "We agree there should be
consultations between us to avoid
any negative impact on the econo
mies of the United States and Eu
rope," Richardson quoted the Ku
waiti minister as saying. "But when
we look at the interests of our friends
and allies, we expect them to also
look at our interests and how our
economies are so dependent on oil."
After the debacle in Jakarta, sev
eral OPEC members - including Al
geria, Venezuela, Iran, Indonesia and
Nigeria - suffered a near collapse of
their oil-dependent economies that
contributed to political instability.
Even Saudi Arabia suffered a serious
budget shortfall that prompted the af
fluent desert kingdom to seek emer
gency loans for the first time in its
history.
But since last year, OPEC coun
tries - which account for about 40
percent of the world's oil output -
have reaped a windfall in profits as
demand for oil picked up in virtually
every corner of the world. After suf
fering through several years of reces
sion caused by weak revenue, the
cartel's 11 members saw their oil in
come jump by 75 percent last year to
others, according to news reports,
also believe it is related to a genetic
propensity to clot more quickly that
is present in up to 5 percent of people.
Although business-class and first-
class airline passengers too can be
afflicted, the misery of long-distance
flights in cramped economy class
made a vivid link for many people.
The idea that more legroom would
help prevent a dangerous medical
problem caught on quickly. More
room, of course, would make it easier
to stretch out one's legs, which doc
tors recommend as a preventive. For
reasons of comfort and competition,
some airlines are already removing a
row or two of seats to add legroom.
Doctors also recommend sitting on
the aisle or near a bulkhead to allow
for more bodily movement, drinking
SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
Fuzzy math on Pulsars?
The Washington Post by a Japanese satellite, but its con-
January 15, 2001 nection with the ancient explosion
remained murky. The question is
important because a pulsar prc
In the spring of A.D. 386, Chi
nese astronomers witnr
the explosion of a may
sive star in the constel
lation now known as
Sagittarius. A remnant
of that blast is telling
modern astronomers
that one of their as-
sumptions about these
powerful events may
be wrong
Scientists have used
the Chandra X-ray ob
servatory in space to
identify the husk left
from that stellar death •
a collapsed objec
known as a pulsa ,
about the diameter o
the District of Columbi
and spinning 14 times p
second. If confirmed, this would
be only the second pulsar to be
clearly associated with a histori
cal event.
The pulsar was detected in 1997
The dis-
$285 billion, according to OPEC sta-
In response to a surge in prices last
year that sent the cost of crude oil soar
ing to the highest levels in a decade,
OPEC raised production on four suc
cessive occasions by a total of 3.75
million barrels a day. By this spring,
however, after the heavy consumption
of heating oil ends in the Northern
Hemisphere and before the summer
driving season picks up, OPEC fears
there will be a sharp decline in con
sumption that could drive prices
down.
For that reason, many OPEC lead
ers insist that radical measures are re
quired to soak up excess oil supplies
before a glut develops. "We realize
that world economic growth is going
to be slower this year than last and that
will impact oil demand," said Ali
Rodriguez, Venezuela's oil minister
before becorAing OPEC general sec
retary two weeks ago. "But we figure
that after cutting production, if prices
rise too much we can always correct
that, because it's always more easy to
correct an increase in price than a fall."
But others say there is a zero-sum
game at work and that, contrary to
pleas for cooperation, there is an in
herent struggle between producers and
consumers that bears hostile overtones
of class warfare between the rich oil
consumers of the West and poor pro
ducing nations of the Third World that
are desperately dependent on oil ex
ports as their only source of income.
"It's clear that Europe and the
United States only want very low
prices," OPEC's acting president, Al
gerian Oil Minister Chakib Khalil,
told reporters. "Do they want to see
the same prices as 1988? And do they
care what will happen to us? If we
don't do any cuts, we're going to see
those prices as early as the second
quarter of this year."
plenty of water and avoiding alcohol
on flights to stave oft dehydration in
a plane's dry air. Walking around once
an hour, or at least doing foot and leg
stretches, may help as well. Of course,
there are a limited number of the
roomier aisle and bulkhead seats, and
strolling around crowded airplanes
whose narrow aisles are often clogged
with food and beverage carts is not so
much an option as a challenge.
Among those who survived throm
bosis during or after flights. lawsuits
are being threatened. Some airlines
now provide written warnings to pas
sengers or show videos that encour
age stretching. And even if it's no
magic bullet for preventing thrombo
sis, that extra inch or two of leg space
is still a goal devoutly wished in
economy class.
dow" on the
death throes of its exploded par
ent star. And it is in such explo
sions that heavy elements manu
factured in stars are distributed
Reagarc recuperating
after surgery
by Rene Sanchez
The Washington Post
January 13, 2001
SANTA MONICA, Calif. - Former
president Ronald Reagan was recu
perating in a hospital here Saturday
after undergoing surgery to repair his
broken right hip, an injury he suffered
in a minor fall at his home.
Joanne Drake, a Reagan family
spokeswoman, said the operation
was successful and without conapli
cation. Reagan, who turns 90 next
month, "is resting comfortably back
in his room," she said, with his wife,
Nancy, at his side.
Authorities at St. John's Health
Center, volierißeagaii. Was rilifio to
by ambulance Friday, sal the sur
gery this morning lasted just over an
hour. Doctors inserted metal pins and
screws into Reagan's hip, a common
medical procedure that for elderly
patients presents a lengthy and often
difficult recovery,
Kevin Ehrhart, the orthopedic sur
geon who led the operation, said
Reagan is doing well but will remain
in the hospital for at least another
week. Ehrhart also said the two-term
former president may have a "long
uphill struggle" to a full recovery, in
part because he is afflicted with
Alzheimer's disease.
"I'm sure it wilt complicate it
somewhat more," Ehrhart said.
About 350,000 people, many of
them elderly and frail, fracture their
hips every year in the United States,
mostly from falls, according to the
American Academy of Orthopedic
through the universe, setting the
stage for the evolution of planets
and life.
Chandra's observations reveal
clearly for the first time that the
pulsar is at the precise center of
the spreading cloud of gas and par
ticles from the explosion. This
makes the linkage "essentially in
escapable," according to Victoria
Kaspi of McGill University in
Montreal. She presented her
team's results last week at a meet
ing of the American Astronomical
Society in San Diego.
Astronomers using the standard
method of calculating pulsar ages,
based on rate of spin, had previ
ously estimated the pulsar to be
24,000 years old. The new evi
dence indicates their figure was
more than 22,000 years high and
"suggests that other standard pul
sar age estimates may be wrong
as well," Kaspi said. David
Helfand of Columbia University,
not on the Kaspi team, said pulsar
specialists will have to reassess
their assumptions about "original
spin."
FRIDAY, JANUARY 19, 2001
Surgeons. Only 25 percent olthose
patients make a full recovery; 40 per
cent require nursing home care; 50
percent need a cane or walker; and 20
percent die from complications in 12
months, the academy said.
Iteagtui's doctors said that although
they were encouraged by the health
of his bones and tissue, his rehabili
tation could'take months and poses
particular'risks for a person his age
because it wears on the heart and
lungs.
During his presidency, Reagan sure
.
vsved a 1981 assass ination attempt, a
1985 colon cancer operation and 1987
prostate and sldn-cancer surgery.
Since 1994, when Reagan an
a6u:liCP4llAa a handwritten letter Ictthe
IS tuerjca'li. ,liatTle that he had
Aliheimer's and had begun a journey
"into
the
sunset °f my lifels , &, former
president has withdrawn from: public
life. He and his wife live in the exclu
sive Bel , Air community of Los An
geles,
In the past two years, as his mental
health has'steadily declimo, Reagan
has stopped going to his 'office in
nearby Century City and has not made
any public appearances, excePtlor
occasional walks with Secret Service
agents in a park near his home. Scime
friends and family members say he no
longer recognizes them.
Ehrhart said that when Reagan ar
rived at the hospital Friday aftemoort,
he was in considerable pain, as is
comet tto for 'patients with broken
hips. He said the break causal by the
fall was not'mare= but still a "sig..
nificant injury,"
Sleep-cycle gene
is identified
The Washington Post
January 15, 2001
Researchers have identified the first
gene involved in regulating the human
sleep cycle, an advance that could lead
to new ways to treat such sleeping
problems as jet lag.
Kong L. Toh of the University of
Utah and colleagues made the discov
ery by studying a Utah family with the
unusual disorder known as familial ad
vanced sleep-phase syndrome, or
FASPS. The disorder causes people to
fall asleep unusually early, about 7:30
p.m., and awake unusually early, about
4:30 a.m.
The family members had a defect
in a gene known as hPer2, according
to a report that will be published in the
journal Science. Experiments with
fruit flies have shown that the gene
plays a crucial role in regulating the
body's circadian rhythm - the body
clock that controls a variety of basic
bodily functions, such as sleep.
"Such discoveries will likely pro
vide novel insights into human sleep
and may improve our ability to treat
~. other sleep-phase disorders such as
... jet lag and (problems associated
with) shift work," the researchers
wrote.